The impact of US tariffs on China is multifaceted, involving short-term shocks as well as long-term challenges and opportunities.

Short-term Shocks

• Obstruction of Export Trade: The US tariffs directly increase the prices of Chinese goods exported to the US, reducing the competitiveness of Chinese products in the international market and leading to a decrease in orders. For example, China’s exports to the US dropped by 18% in the first quarter of 2025. Labor-intensive products such as furniture, toys, and shoes are particularly affected. For every 1% increase in tariffs, China’s export growth rate to the US may decline by 1.2 to 1.5 percentage points.
• Supply Chain Disruption Risks: Tariffs on key areas such as semiconductor equipment in the US have led to increased production costs for Chinese enterprises and affected capacity expansion. For example, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMT) faces an additional monthly cost of $120 million due to tariffs, delaying the mass production plan for its 128-layer NAND chips by six months. In addition, logistics costs have also surged due to tariff policies, and delivery cycles have been extended.
• Pressure on People’s Livelihood: Tariffs lead to price increases for some goods, triggering imported inflationary pressures. For example, lithium carbonate, a key material for new energy vehicle batteries, has seen a price increase of 25% due to tariff barriers, which is then transmitted to the end market and leads to consumption suppression. Moreover, in cities with high export dependence such as Dongguan and Suzhou, small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises have a lower operating rate, and about 1.2 million industrial workers face the pressure of job reassignment.

Long-term Impacts

• Restructuring of Trade Patterns: China’s export share to the US has gradually decreased from 19% in 2018 to 12% in 2025, while the export share to other regions such as RCEP member countries has increased. At the same time, new digital trade tracks such as cross-border e-commerce are developing rapidly. For example, Shein has achieved a 28% market share in the US through the “flexible supply chain + big data product selection” model, despite the overall trend of declining exports.
• Accelerated Industrial Upgrading: The tariff pressure has prompted Chinese enterprises to speed up the process of domestic substitution. For example, the market share of Yangtze Memory’s domestic NAND chips has jumped from 3% to 12%. At the same time, China has gradually built an innovation ecosystem in fields such as 5G and artificial intelligence, with its PCT international patent applications accounting for 43% of the global total in 2024, surpassing the US for the first time.
• Transformation to Domestic Demand-driven Model: China’s total retail sales of consumer goods continue to grow, with the proportion of service consumption increasing. New consumption trends such as the silver economy and guochao consumption are constantly emerging. The investment structure is also continuously optimized, with the proportion of investment in “two new and one heavy” construction increasing to 62%.

Strategic Opportunities

• Enhanced Global Governance Voice: China has achieved phased victories in suing the US for violations in the WTO and has promoted the signing of the Multilateral Framework Agreement on Digital Trade by 67 countries. At the same time, by regulating the export of key resources such as rare earths, China has gained strategic initiative.
• Deepened Regional Cooperation: The Belt and Road Initiative has been upgraded, with the China-Laos Railway driving a 53% increase in ASEAN agricultural exports to China. In addition, key breakthroughs have been made in the CPTPP negotiations, and after the signing of the free trade agreement with the GCC, the proportion of Middle East crude oil settled in RMB has increased to 24%.
• Leading Technological Revolution: Baidu’s “ERNIE 4.0” has a parameter size of one trillion, with an accuracy rate in industrial quality inspection that surpasses human experts. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) has laid out eight power battery bases in Europe, and LONGi’s photovoltaic module global market share has exceeded 35%.

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CA10 A290-600-FT2-G521 CG8 A230-600EF-V A11 HKE256KN1 T9E1 1100/1600-004(11-16A) D11A A178-600FT2 T9E1 0600/0920-004(6-9.2A) CA4 A232-600FS1 A3FE27289AABD04  L400 SGJ382ER CA10B A023-600E F 1756-PB75-CC RWT201 SD06 CG4 1A200-600FS2 CA25B A007-620E J30J-15TJL-A3 CA10 A220-614-FT2 CG4 A232-600FS2 CA10B A240-600E CA10 A324-600E CA4 A230-600FS1 CA10 A723V5688101 1756-PA75 911G-30DV1 kj3300  DH11B 1A214-604KN1G213 KG41 T303/SGZ621E C26 A723-600E CH10 A007-600FT2 CG4 A048-600E CA10 A214-608-FT2 DH11B A-F691-603KN1A-850/A1+SICT150K+G221+F8A-EUT2 KG41 T204/D-A003TED UL2464-24AWGx2C ERWH401LGC103MFD0U JP31-19/1200 CA10 D-634P 01E22 KG20B T203/SGZ002VE CG8 A577-600E S0 V845/A19/A11 CG8 A715-600FT2 KG20B K601-600E CA10 A221-600E S0 V750D SF121 C8-FMCB2 HbA1c R417 D408T01 BMXDAO1615 H400  CAD11 A5U605-610FT2 CA10 D-12A1-01E CH10B A220 EF AD11 F-3368KN1 CG8 A220-600EF-V CA20 A178-600 V845 CG8 D-703P 01 VE21V CH10 A178EF CA4-1 F-5240 FS1 SIS0001 CA10 A244-600EG CA10 A004-600 ERWH351LGC103MEE0U TVA650 YOX65 US400 DI-050-22 LA-0020 607K20750 MLNR-05 MJ-5021 Fox-2001 KG32B T103/01E-K0H010/A11-E CA10 D-630P 01E22 CHR11 2 NON-RETURNJ-0445 LC-220 TT75 UK4A v2-step-1002 89245-30040 159-177.1-6.5-7.7 KG125 T103/04E ERWH351LGC682MDE5U FMI51-P1KTDJB3D1A CHHCH740817 EP-ISP009 5229011 3545398C6 YT27 BMXCPS3500 CA20 A202-621E CG4 B-3380 FS2-V CA10 A748-600 FLR-5P4S 1-87810-035-0 4WE6H 5M-6707 DQ45De HS-3103 L293D es1200 DST-003 MC-530 06E9299600 JQ-JW020 CDD15 TM12864i-1 E343952 CG8 A711-600FT2 CA10 A442/RK0001EG U40230/001 SIS T9E1 0060/0092-004(0.6-0.92A) CA10B A242-600E F CG8 A210-600FT2 ERWH451LGC123MFK0U CG8 A241-600E-V/G251 CH10 A214-600FT2 G211  DH10-4 E-1004FT3+G521 CA10 A231-600E S0V765/AH2/61 DH11B 1A214-604KN1G212 CA11 D-W386EF M470/A1A CHR11 5 NON-RTEURNJ-1645 J00823/004 CA10 A231-600EG KG315T303/D-A002E C26 A-C597-600E CA10 A023-FT1/V750D3/101 44-2261-242-1084 DW-K5600 WR224D16 HW-LCR02 48PT2 7918911787 KG250 T103/D A017CE KG20B T104/01E KG80 T104/01E CG8 A203-600FT2 ERWH451LGC822MEG5U Jingda-18 C83-6 SGG196VE(S2) CG8 A-8550E C/WF A-AW85 EKB-99 FMK24S5100 22032 995-18635-00 GL6100 6210-81-6960 SJC31 DC10100 DOL12H CG4 A241 K-001FS1 CG8 A210-600FT2/V750D/311 CA10 A203 CG4 A210-620FS2 CG4 A202-600FT2 DH11A A4K59EF CH10 A211-600FT2 KG125 T203/01E 9Q14B 30HX410332 HD-23 SVA1075X GTZZ15J/040100011 XD-040 GM-JJ08B1-OR MR15H a5tg37d8 CA10 D-636P01EF KG125 T103/17  CA10 A216-600EG/G211 3566717C5 JR120 R4E-400-AD17-06 CA20 A722-600E CH10R A007-623E ERWH451LGC822MFD5U SY-P044-2 CH10 A8189-600FT1 G213 ERWH451LGC472MEA5U MA9604770503 CA10 A750-600EG/S1 V760/U CH10 A007-624FT2-V 1756-PA72-CC KG100 T203 01/E CAD11 D-582K 1756-PAR2 AB13-30540.02/0007  2080-LC30-48QWB 25CY141B Hv430fhb 010-02706-00 564-4946 DH11B A220-604KN1A+SICT150K+G221+K*A-HR39 A11 A656-600E DC47-00006V LNX-0500-M12-67 90104/26 BJ10-2F HK-300 MGD1602B-FLYBS 1381 MS-ST178 HFO-1234ze T-017 CA10 A210-600EG CA20 A220-600E CA10 A007-624EC AX 100KTL3-X LV TM-21 R3-219-06 LS-6017 P283804 CH10 A231-600FT2  CA10 A251-600 CG8 A025-620E CH10 A231-FT2 DH11B A214-604KN1 572623 QTJ4-25 PDCR-921-1742 k1600gt FD6.4-5000 PAM8403  CA10B D-Y567*01E CA10 ICS420 CH10B A-C342 EF KG160 T203/12 V1 DH11 A214-610FT2 CG4 A210 1-001FS1 CG8 A715-600E S0 V845 C42 SGB197E SISI  MS10SCWV ZHEF350 HK-333 CA10 A203-620FT2 SX510BM-120-B1CEJ4  CG4-1 A245-600FS1 CAD11 A290-600FT2/S0V845/A11/D11 SWRCH10-15 PV021194 CA4 A231-600FS1 KG125 F203/41-STM  CG4 A215-600FS2 CG4 A215 FS2 DH10-4 A-205FT3+G521 IC200PWR002 TE100 1280303009 6022038 HPL AUP10  CA10 A004-G001 06E9265600 AS-P1030DN AS-30 R760XD2 GEA-20PD poch 80i C32 SGB197E SISI CA10 A723EGV760/G001 CG8 A233/FT4 Ap-1720-fp 11210-30110 814s-W3 RJ9  CA20 A210-620E DH11 A178-600FT2 KG210 T203/13VE CAD11 A290-600E CA10 A442-620E KG20 T203/SGZ003 KS2V C316 A261-602ER  CHR11 SPRINGRETURN J-1643 J000393/005 DH11 A5T5T4E CA10B A010-622E S1010 A024/3010  CA10 A231-600EG/G001 CG8 A291-600EF S0 V845 CA20 A4851EG KG32B T103/D-A081E KL11V CH10 A230-600FT2-V CEM-3 AES25DS 3153-291 AA0190-1 wt10 YMPZ-2 PDB465C GYY45-400/240 CA10 A714-603EFH3 S1BG411 CA10 A201-FT1-V-G251 CH10 D737A 01 FH3 KG20A T203/04E DH11B A280-604KN1 CA10 A722-G001 CA10 A723-G001 DH11 A714EF CG4 A270 FS1 CA4-1 A205-FS1-V CH10 A215-600FT2 CA4 A220-600FS1 CH10 D-7239 01 EF RK87 HID618A SAD151 MQ10B 326-9110-461 9NGXY9207 8040-222 16035-B0010 CA10 A476-600E CAD11 A791FT2 CA10 A291-600E S0 V765 G001/2A00017 C125 A481-600E KG32B T103/04E CAD11 A5N675E CAD11 A290-600 ERWH451LGC562MDG5U ZYH-30 1756-PA72 CM442R-AAM1A2F01+AKSA  CH10 A017-620E S0 G001 KG160 T203/01E CG8 A214-600EGF PC319 DH11B A4K591 EF-F991-PE KG64B T103/17E